Canary In The Coal Mine- 2!

The $10 Trillion Hidden Debt Problem!

One of my top 10 read pieces is “Canary In The Coal Mine”, which I wrote last year, demystifying the “troublesome” Chinese property sector.

Some people would argue that Chinese Real Estate (RE) forms a small share of the total RE wealth globally; however, one can’t ignore the gargantuan building spree that China has undertaken in the last two decades. China was solely responsible for the commodity bull market that ensued in the first decade of the 21st century.

Nevertheless, as the Chinese RE sector peaked and indicated the first signs of a slowdown beginning in 2016-17, the commodities since then have traded sideways (except the post covid bull run, which has now fizzled out).

The tremendous rise in Chinese Credit Impulse in 2015 gave massive impetus to property prices. Nonetheless, it looks that that was the final leg of the rally before the meltdown occurred as a string of default…