“And it is our judgment that we're not yet at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance, which is why we say that we expect ongoing hikes will be appropriate.”-Jerome Powell.
PS: Before I start, I want to announce a new feature to my substack: the footnotes. A lot of people are fresh to the macro world; thus, to make things uncomplicated for them, I have introduced this. I hope you will find the new feature valuable.
A mind-blowing Non-Farm Payrolls Number1(NFP), a significant easing of financial conditions thanks to tighter credit spreads and an unbelievable rally in stocks, a slight recovery in housing and auto sales and a bump in Services PMI2: The data releases in the past fortnight point out that there is a “big flip” in the macro arena in the US.
The GDP estimates by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker further solidifies the fact:
Starting at just 0.7%, estimates for Q1 real GDP have moved significantly upwards to 2.5%.
Time for introspection?
So, after the latest data releases and especial…
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