Excellent summary of the current global economy highlighting the key pinch points!
BTW, the LEI is having a lot of trouble predicting anything since the pandemic. While it has tons of historical data, it has not "experienced" a global pandemic, large govt stimuli that followed and the see-saw recovery path of the economy. I hope they revise the methodology to make it more useful.
Conference Board’s LEI includes leading indicators such as yield curve inversion, Housing Data and the ISM data. It’s an index which predicts the peak and trough of business cycles and have been fairly accurate in determining the cyclical activity. You can read in detail here: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
When you scroll down in the link, you will also find the individual components of the LEI.
Excellent summary of the current global economy highlighting the key pinch points!
BTW, the LEI is having a lot of trouble predicting anything since the pandemic. While it has tons of historical data, it has not "experienced" a global pandemic, large govt stimuli that followed and the see-saw recovery path of the economy. I hope they revise the methodology to make it more useful.
Thanks!
Though agree that there are multiple triggers that were absent in earlier recessions, but LEI's prediction won't be wrong just "delayed" IMO.
18-19 month delay? That qualifies as being wrong in my book. LOL.
Cheers!
Not happening for the first time, as I mentioned, it happened in 70s and even in 2008.
Point no 5 , more details please
Hi Riju!
Conference Board’s LEI includes leading indicators such as yield curve inversion, Housing Data and the ISM data. It’s an index which predicts the peak and trough of business cycles and have been fairly accurate in determining the cyclical activity. You can read in detail here: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
When you scroll down in the link, you will also find the individual components of the LEI.